Analyzing a Microstakes NLHE Hand: Queens vs. an All-In

I recently lost a hand with a pair of Queens having faced a shove on the flop. Let’s break down the hand and assess my key decisions.

Preflop Action

Hero (playing from the HJ. 105BB): Dealt [Qc, Qh]
Player1 (big blind. 190BB): I know nothing else about this player but we are playing microstakes on a zoom game.

Preflop Analysis:

I'm opening the action with a standard raise of $0.05, and Player1, sitting in the big blind, re-raises to $0.20.

I could flat Queens here. I think about possible ranges and assume that Player1 has predominantly value 3 Bets and some bluffs mixed in. I'm mentally assigning a range that looks like this:

TT+, AJs+, A5s-A3s, KQs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+

This gives some decent hands to 3 Bet but also some bluffs with the suited connectors and suited aces that could flop a strong hand. Against this range my Queens are about 60%.

I'm responding with a 4 bet to $0.62, an appropriate sizing given the strong pocket pair. Since Player1 flat calls instead of a 5-bet then this likely caps their range, indicating hands like medium pocket pairs, suited connectors, or occasionally suited aces. Stronger holdings (e.g., AA or KK) would likely 5-bet preflop at this stack depth.

I'm taking AA, KK, QQ out of my earlier range.

GTO Perspective: Against a balanced opponent, Hero’s 4-bet sizing is solid, applying maximum pressure. Queens are well ahead of most re-raising ranges in microstakes games. However, Hero should also be mindful of balance by including occasional bluffs (e.g., A5s or KJs) in the 4-bet range.

Exploitative Adjustment: At microstakes, players often overvalue hands like AK or JJ and under-bluff in 3-bet pots. Thus, Hero’s 4-bet is likely extracting maximum value from a weaker calling range.

Flop Action

Board: [3h, 2h, 4s]
Player1: Checks
Hero: Bets $0.90
Player1: Check-raises all-in for $3.24

Flop Analysis:

This low and coordinated flop offers straight and flush draws, making it somewhat dangerous for an overpair. However, Hero holds the second nut flush draw blocker (Qh) and dominates most overcards in Player1’s range.

I've already removed AA, KK, QQ from my opponents range (and I never included the small pocket pairs that would make the set). Hence, it doesn't feel too comfortable but I cannot fold at this point.

My continuation bet of $0.90 into a pot of $1.26 represents a solid, albeit aggressive, move. The sizing puts pressure on hands like 10-JJ and draws from the suited aces. When Player1 check-raises all-in, the situation becomes tricky. The pot odds Hero receives ($3.24 to win $5.07) necessitate a call if my equity is at least 31%.

This is mu calculation on whether my hand is strong enough to justify a call given the pot odds provided by Player1's all-in raise.

Pot Odds Calculation:
- After Player1 shoves, the pot contains:
  - Initial Pot Before Shove: $1.26 (from Hero's $0.90 bet and prior contributions)
  - Player1's Shove: $3.24
  - Hero’s Call Amount: $0.57 (to go all-in)
- Total Pot: $1.26 + $3.24 + $0.57 = $5.07
- Amount to Call: $0.57
Pot Odds: Pot odds are calculated as the ratio of the call amount to the total pot after calling, so 0.57 / 5.07 ≈ 8.0%
My estimated Equity: To calculate my equity, I consider the likely range of Player1's hands and simulate possible outcomes using an equilab. Key factors include:
- Player1’s Shoving Range: Straights (A5), sets (33, 22, 44), flush draws, combo draws (e.g., 5h6h), and potential bluffs like Ah5x.

GTO Perspective: I should assess the range of hands Player1 might shove but from the hands that I am working with in my opposition's range. Again, I know that I could be wrong and the shove could be from a set from a low pocket pair.

Value: Straights (e.g., A5), sets (e.g., 33, 22, 44)
Semi-bluffs: Flush draws (AhXh), combo draws (e.g., 5h6h)
Bluffs: Rare hands at microstakes but could include Ah5s or air with the Ah blocker. This seems very unlikely.

I am sure that my Queens have sufficient equity to call due to its blockers and outs against combo draws. I earlier chose the range that I am working with in considering the player's moves to date. If I adjust the range now so that it only includes the suited hands that are hearts, and that are most likely to be bluffs, I am still some way ahead. If I assign a range of JJ-TT, AhKh, AhJh, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h for shoving then I have 76% equity. A very easy call!

Exploitative Adjustment: Player1’s check-raise is polarizing and suggests strength at microstakes, where players tend to avoid bluffing in such spots. M queens may be behind Player1’s range in practice. Folding becomes a reasonable adjustment if I have strong reads indicating bluffs. From the range that I earlier assigned, I am behind A5 but ahead of pretty much everything else.

As we turn our hands over and wait for the turn and river, I see that Player1 holds A5o and does indeed have a straight. I feel comfortable, though irritated!, with my call.

Turn and River

Turn: [Qs]
River: [6h]

On the turn my Queens improve to a set on the turn and await the board to pair so that a full house beats the made straight. The flush isn't now on. Of course, the board doesn't pair and Player1's straight takes the pot.

Post-Flop Analysis:

Player1’s hand (A5o) was well-disguised preflop and maximized fold equity by shoving the flop. I feel that my call was mathematically sound but could have been avoided with an exploitative adjustment if I had known more about the player. However, I have seen enough bluffs and over-valuation of pairs that are above the highest card on the board at these stakes to know that I cannot fold here.

Key Takeaways

Preflop Play:
- Hero’s 4-bet was solid, but paying attention to tendencies at microstakes (e.g., under-bluffing) might warrant a tighter range when calling shoves.
Flop Decision:
- GTO: Calling the shove is justified due to pot odds and equity.
- Exploitative: Folding might be optimal against opponents unlikely to bluff-shove.
Reads and Adjustments:
- Player1’s polarizing flop shove suggests strength, especially at microstakes. Without evidence of bluffs, Hero could consider a tighter line.
Microstakes Dynamics:
- Players often overvalue made hands and semi-bluffs while under-bluffing. Hero should adapt by leaning towards tighter post-flop decisions.

100 Poker Hands